Global assessment of coral bleaching and required rates of adaptation under climate change

Elevated ocean temperatures can cause coral bleaching, the loss of colour from reef-building corals because of a breakdown of the symbiosis with the dinoflagellate Symbiodinium. Recent studies have warned that global climate change could increase the frequency of coral bleaching and threaten the long-term viability of coral reefs. These assertions are based on projecting the coarse output from atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (GCMs) to the local conditions around representative coral reefs. Here, we conduct the first comprehensive global assessment of coral bleaching under climate change by adapting the NOAA Coral Reef Watch bleaching prediction method to the output of a low- and high-climate sensitivity GCM. First, we develop and test algorithms for predicting mass coral bleaching with GCM-resolution sea surface temperatures for thousands of coral reefs, using a global coral reef map and 1985-2002 bleaching prediction data. We then use the algorithms to determine the frequency of coral bleaching and required thermal adaptation by corals and their endosymbionts under two different emissions scenarios. The results indicate that bleaching could become an annual or biannual event for the vast majority of the world's coral reefs in the next 30-50 years without an increase in thermal tolerance of 0.2-1.0 degrees C per decade. The geographic variability in required thermal adaptation found in each model and emissions scenario suggests that coral reefs in some regions, like Micronesia and western Polynesia, may be particularly vulnerable to climate change. Advances in modelling and monitoring will refine the forecast for individual reefs, but this assessment concludes that the global prognosis is unlikely to change without an accelerated effort to stabilize atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations.

CTFS-ForestGEO: a worldwide network monitoring forests in an era of global change

Global change is impacting forests worldwide, threatening biodiversity and ecosystem services including climate regulation. Understanding how forests respond is critical to forest conservation and climate protection. This review describes an international network of 59 long-term forest dynamics research sites (CTFS-ForestGEO) useful for characterizing forest responses to global change. Within very large plots (median size 25ha), all stems 1cm diameter are identified to species, mapped, and regularly recensused according to standardized protocols. CTFS-ForestGEO spans 25 degrees S-61 degrees N latitude, is generally representative of the range of bioclimatic, edaphic, and topographic conditions experienced by forests worldwide, and is the only forest monitoring network that applies a standardized protocol to each of the world's major forest biomes. Supplementary standardized measurements at subsets of the sites provide additional information on plants, animals, and ecosystem and environmental variables. CTFS-ForestGEO sites are experiencing multifaceted anthropogenic global change pressures including warming (average 0.61 degrees C), changes in precipitation (up to +/- 30% change), atmospheric deposition of nitrogen and sulfur compounds (up to 3.8g Nm(-2)yr(-1) and 3.1g Sm(-2)yr(-1)), and forest fragmentation in the surrounding landscape (up to 88% reduced tree cover within 5km). The broad suite of measurements made at CTFS-ForestGEO sites makes it possible to investigate the complex ways in which global change is impacting forest dynamics. Ongoing research across the CTFS-ForestGEO network is yielding insights into how and why the forests are changing, and continued monitoring will provide vital contributions to understanding worldwide forest diversity and dynamics in an era of global change.

Global change alters the stability of food webs

Recent research has generally shown that a small change in the number of species in a food web can have consequences both for community structure and ecosystem processes. However 'change' is not limited to just the number of species in a community, but might include an alteration to such properties as precipitation, nutrient cycling and temperature. How such changes might affect species interactions is important, not just through the presence or absence of interactions, but also because the patterning of interaction strengths among species is intimately associated with community stability. Interaction strengths encompass such properties as feeding rates and assimilation efficiencies, and encapsulate functionally important information with regard to ecosystem processes. Interaction strengths represent the pathways and transfer of energy through an ecosystem. We review the best empirical data available detailing the frequency distribution of interaction strengths in communities. We present the underlying (but consistent) pattern of species interactions and discuss the implications of this patterning. We then examine how such a basic pattern might be affected given various scenarios of 'change' and discuss the consequences for community stability and ecosystem functioning.

Global change pressures on soils from land use and management

Soils are subject to varying degrees of direct or indirect human disturbance, constituting a major global change driver. Factoring out natural from direct and indirect human influence is not always straightforward, but some human activities have clear impacts. These include land use change, land management, and land degradation (erosion, compaction, sealing and salinization). The intensity of land use also exerts a great impact on soils, and soils are also subject to indirect impacts arising from human activity, such as acid deposition (sulphur and nitrogen) and heavy metal pollution. In this critical review, we report the state-of-the-art understanding of these global change pressures on soils, identify knowledge gaps and research challenges, and highlight actions and policies to minimise adverse environmental impacts arising from these global change drivers. Soils are central to considerations of what constitutes sustainable intensification. Therefore, ensuring that vulnerable and high environmental value soils are considered when protecting important habitats and ecosystems, will help to reduce the pressure on land from global change drivers. To ensure that soils are protected as part of wider environmental efforts, a global soil resilience programme should be considered, to monitor, recover or sustain soil fertility and function, and to enhance the ecosystem services provided by soils. Soils cannot, and should not, be considered in isolation of the ecosystems that they underpin and vice versa. The role of soils in supporting ecosystems and natural capital needs greater recognition. The lasting legacy of the International Year of Soils in 2015 should be to put soils at the centre of policy supporting environmental protection and sustainable development.

Global change synergies and trade-offs between renewable energy and biodiversity

Funded by Kone Foundation ERC-StG. Grant Number: 260393 Academy of Finland Centre of Excellence Programme 2012–2017

Coral reefs in a century of rapid environmental change

Coral reefs are the most diverse marine ecosystem and embrace possibly millions of plant, animal and protist species. Mutualistic symbioses are a fundamental feature of coral reefs that have been used to explain their structure, biodiversity and existence. Complex inter-relationships between hosts, habitats and symbionts belie closely coupled nutrient and community dynamics that create the circumstances for something from nothing (or the oasis in a nutrient desert). The flip side of these dynamics is a close dependency between species, which results in a series of non-linear relationships as conditions change. These responses are being highlighted as anthropogenic influences increase across the world's tropical and subtropical coastlines. Caribbean as well as Indo-Pacific coral populations are now in a serious decline in many parts of the world. This has resulted in a significant reorganization of how coral reef ecosystems function. Among the spectra of changes brought about by humans is rapid climate change. Mass coral bleaching - the loss of the dinoflagellate symbionts from reef-building corals - and mortality has affected the world's coral reefs with increasing frequency and intensity since the late 1970s. Mass bleaching events, which often cover thousands of square kilometres of coral reefs, are triggered by small increases (+1-3degreesC) in water temperature. These increases in sea temperature are often seen during warm phase weather conditions (e.g. ENSO) and are increasing in size and magnitude. The loss of living coral cover (e.g. 16% globally in 1998, an exceptionally warm year) is resulting in an as yet unspecified reduction in the abundance of a myriad of other species. Projections from general circulation models (GCM) used to project changes in global temperature indicate that conditions even under the mildest greenhouse gas emission scenarios may exceed the thermal tolerances of most reef-building coral communities. Research must now explore key issues such as the extent to which the thermal tolerances of corals and their symbionts are dynamic if bleaching and disease are linked; how the loss of high densities of reef-building coral will affect other dependent species; and, how the loss of coral populations will affect the millions of people globally who depend on coral reefs for their daily survival.

Global Change Pressures on Soils from Land Use and Management

This work contributed to The input of PS and PCW contributes to the Belmont Forum/FACCE-JPI funded DEVIL project (NE/M021327/1) and for PS also contributes to the EU FP7 SmartSoil project (Project number: 289694)

Global Change Pressures on Soils from Land Use and Management

This work contributed to The input of PS and PCW contributes to the Belmont Forum/FACCE-JPI funded DEVIL project (NE/M021327/1) and for PS also contributes to the EU FP7 SmartSoil project (Project number: 289694)

Use of X-radiographs to distinguish members of the Montastraea annularis reef-coral species complex

Recent work suggests the Montastraea annularis species complex consists of at least three species, which can be distinguished qualitatively in the field using features related to colony growth (e.g. overall growth form. bumpiness, growth along the colony edge). However, when whole colonies are not available and surfaces are eroded, identification becomes problematic when relying on such characteristics. Characters based on internal skeletal structures are less prone to loss due to taphonomic processes. Previous work has shown that internal corallite architectural features measured in transverse thin sections can be used to distinguish species. To determine whether internal colony-level features measured on X-radiographs can be used. eight characters related to corallite budding and accretionary growth were measured on specimens representing three modern members of the M. annularis species complex (M. annularis, M. flaveolata and M. franksi), as well as two fossil forms (columnar and organ-pipe). All eight characters showed significant differences among species. Discriminant function analysis using seven of these characters resulted in distinct species groupings In canonical scores plots and a 100% classification success for specimens from Panama. These results suggest that measurements made on X-radiographs provide a useful tool for quantitatively distinguishing members of the M. annularis complex as well as between other massive reef corals.

Coral bleaching following wintry weather

Extensive coral bleaching Occurred intertidally in early August 2003 in the Capricorn Bunker group (Wistari Reef, Heron and One Tree Islands; Southern Great Barrier Reef). The affected intertidal coral had been exposed to unusually cold (minimum = 13.3degreesC; wet bulb temperature = 9degreesC) and dry winds (44% relative humidity) for 2 d during predawn low tides. Coral bleached in the upper 10 cm of their branches and had less than 0.2 x 10(6) cell cm(-2) as compared with over 2.5 x 10(6), Cell cm(-2) in nonbleached areas. Dark-adapted quantum yields did not differ between symbionts in bleached and nonbleached areas. Exposing symbionts to light, however, led to greater quenching of Photosystem 11 in symbionts in the bleached coral. Bleached areas of the affected colonies had died by September 2003, with areas that were essentially covered by more than 80% living coral decreasing to less than 10% visible living coral cover. By January 2004, coral began to recover, principally from areas of colonies that were not exposed during low tide (i.e., from below dead, upper regions). These data highlight the importance of understanding local weather patterns as well as the effects of longer term trends in global climate.